Trump wants war

On Sunday, the world witnessed the birth of a new Donald Trump, a bellicose one whose actions belie the abundant promises and declarations of the Trump who had expressed rhetorical desires for peace and underscored his aversion to the kind of interference in the political regimes of third countries conducted by some of his predecessors in the White House.

The reality is that there is no peace in the places where he promised there would be peace “in 24 hours”: neither in Ukraine nor in Gaza. Quite the opposite. The air forces under his command bombed Iran yesterday, ignoring the 15-day deadline he himself had set as an ultimatum for the regime of Ali Khamenei to abandon its uranium enrichment program and surrender unconditionally.

Just days earlier, Secretary of State Marco Rubio had described Israel’s attacks against the Islamic Republic as a “unilateral action,” and Trump’s intelligence director, Tulsi Gabbard, had asserted that the danger of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons was not imminent. Finally, Trump — who had initially distanced himself from the offensive launched on June 13 by Benjamin Netanyahu — has decided to jump on the winner’s bandwagon, swept along by the Israeli prime minister’s praise and military successes.

In the struggle dividing Trumpism between isolationists and militarists, the latter have convinced the president to first use diplomacy of deception and then maximum force. It is a strategy that has unsettled the international community.

Without any direct aggression by Iran, without congressional approval, and without any explicit declaration, the strikes ordered by Trump—in clear violation of international law—sought to complete the work Israel had begun to try to liquidate Iran’s nuclear program through the use of highly destructive bombs.

Although the outcome of the attack is a matter of dispute—downplayed by Tehran and exalted by Washington—there is little doubt about its effects: the Iranian bomb will not exist in the immediate future, and Netanyahu can be happy; he has begun to crown the long offensive that began with the bloody invasion of Gaza following the attacks perpetrated by Hamas — a pro-Iranian militia — on October 7, 2023, and continued, on varying scales, in Lebanon and in Syria. With the U.S. attack on Iran, the Israeli government is on its way to tying up its greatest remaining enemy.

The ball is now in Ayatollah Khamenei’s court. He must decide whether to respond to Donald Trump’s decision to join the war initiated by Netanyahu or whether he prefers negotiations over the uranium enrichment program. It is uncertain whether the Islamic Republic has the military capacity to respond forcefully and protractedly. Nor is it certain that the regime can make concessions without spiraling into a full-blown crisis.

The disappearance of Iran’s nuclear ambitions is good for everyone, starting with Iranian citizens, subjected to a repressive theocracy that disregards human rights. But there are plenty of examples in the Middle East to show that the fall of a dictatorship is often followed — with the West’s indifference — by years of instability and civil war.

The responsibility of those who start a war is paramount, but none of these concerns seem to have been on the minds of the warmongering duo formed by Trump and Netanyahu. It’s not certain that the war will end now, but real peace will not come without justice, especially for the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, who are in a situation of extreme vulnerability, adding daily to the horrific death toll under fire from the Israeli army and temporarily forgotten in the heat of the strikes on Iran.

The wars that have erupted over the past two years have accumulated countless violations of humanitarian law and the United Nations Charter. But they are advancing, driven by a violent escalation that only politics can stem. The failure of diplomacy is terrifying, especially for the countries that have placed the greatest trust in multilateralism and international law, starting with the European Union. If this path continues, we cannot rule out the possibility that today’s hypothetical military victory will not be the seed of future wars of even greater fanaticism tomorrow.

There is nothing to suggest optimism. However, despite Netanyahu and Trump’s explicit desire to subdue and humiliate Tehran, there are always openings to return to diplomatic channels and contain the escalation. Despite its demonstrated impotence, Europe must not throw in the towel, especially the E3 countries (Germany, France, and the United Kingdom), which, along with Barack Obama, facilitated the hopeful 2015 nuclear deal — unilaterally broken by Trump during his first term — and attempted last Friday to maintain open communication channels with the Iranian regime.

The military path recently embarked on by Washington leads to a labyrinth of endless war. However great the momentary military success, it is a moral and political imperative not to close the door to diplomacy, the only path that, although it may seem utopian today, can one day bring peace to the Middle East.

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition