Kyiv fears that the conflict between Iran and Israel will weaken its military support and strengthen Moscow

The conflict between Israel and Iran is a source of concern for Ukraine. Tensions in the Middle East threaten to further limit Western arms supplies to Kyiv, especially from the United States, which counts Israel as a key ally. Not only that, but oil prices have skyrocketed, bringing in more revenue for Russia. Vladimir Putin is also emerging as a mediator with Iran at the request of his American counterpart, Donald Trump, gaining international political clout to the detriment of Ukraine.

The paradox of the escalating Middle East conflict is that the Tehran regime is one of Russia’s few allies, however it is not Moscow that is being harmed by the situation, but Kyiv. This has been confirmed by numerous Ukrainian politicians and analysts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy himself emphasized on Sunday that Russia had once again attacked his country’s electrical grid, taking advantage of the international spotlight on Israel and Iran.

“Moscow intends to strike at our energy grid while the world’s attention is on the Middle East,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha wrote on social media on Monday. Sybiha reiterated the need to establish a price cap on Russian crude oil.

Ivan Gomza, a professor of political science at the Kyiv School of Economics, assumes that Russia will benefit in the short term from the rise in crude oil prices: “The tension in the Strait of Hormuz [a key export route for oil and gas from Arab countries in southern Iran] will affect Ukraine’s interests, but the situation is likely to be resolved within weeks.” Gomza does believe that instability in the fuel market will make it more unlikely that a universal cap on Russian crude oil will be agreed upon.

“Oil prices will skyrocket for a short period, but it will be enough for Russia to recoup what it loses [due to Western sanctions] in a fiscal year,” Ukrainian analyst Maskim Nesvitailov stated last weekend on Espreso TV. “The jump in oil prices is a dream for Russia, to maintain its war budget,” says Mikhail Gonchar, director of the Strategy XXI political think tank and one of Ukraine’s leading experts on energy policy. Gonchar estimates that the Russian ideal is for the price of a barrel to exceed $80 (on June 16, the price of a barrel of Brent crude was $72). This will depend on whether the war situation remains as it is now, Gonchar confirms.

Gomza points out that this is not a new situation for Ukraine, as instability has already affected it on several occasions since October 2023, when the Middle East ignited with the Hamas attacks and Israel’s armed intervention in Gaza. For this academic, the main disadvantage for Ukraine lies in the supply of weapons from its allies, primary among them Washington.

Trump made it clear from the start of his term in January that he has no intention of maintaining the level of arms transfers to Ukraine promised by his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden. In six months in the White House, Trump has not approved any new military aid for Kyiv. The Pentagon’s main support now consists of intelligence.

Zelenskiy warned on June 8 in an interview with ABC that the U.S. government had halted a shipment of 20,000 anti-drone missiles to Kyiv, agreed upon during the Biden administration. These weapons were redirected to Israel, according to the Ukrainian president.

Gomza points out that Ukraine’s aid losses may not only come from the U.S.: Israel’s European allies, depending on the development of the conflict with Iran, may prioritize the Jewish state. The professor at the Kyiv School of Economics mentions a possible suspension of the transfer of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles from Europe to Ukraine. “It’s possible that Israel will ask Europe for anti-aircraft ammunition and other weapons,” Gonchar agrees.

Western analysts have emphasized that the Israeli offensive against Iran could be negative for Russia because Tehran has been a military partner of Moscow in the Ukraine war, but this possibility has been ruled out by Kyiv. “The bombing of Iran does not harm Russia’s military capabilities in any way,” Nesvitailov said. Gomza confirms that the transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia has been minimal and that its main contribution to the invasion of Ukraine, the Shahed bomb drones, have been produced in Russia for some time now.

Trump’s sympathies

Another area of concern in Kyiv is Trump’s inclination to turn Putin into a mediator with Iran. The U.S. president has conveyed this to the Russian leader twice, most recently in a telephone conversation on June 14. The Ukrainian media outlet RBC reported on June 13 that there is concern among Ukrainian political leaders because they believe Trump is seeking diplomatic results at all costs and links the end of the war in Ukraine with the end of the conflict with Iran. This could allow Putin to demand further concessions from Ukraine in a hypothetical peace agreement, according to RBC.

“I’m convinced Putin suggested this grand bargain to Trump,” says Gonchar. And it’s a “terrible idea” for any peace plan, “because the Kremlin’s interest is in saving the Iranian regime and maintaining tension in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East in the long term,” the expert adds.

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